Post by Doan the Nado on Jan 4, 2007 20:49:24 GMT -5
I used to be a regular watcher of ESPN, but this year I do not have cable, so that is not an option. Other than missing out on some of the interesting sports stories (and I'm not talking about T.O.) and missing great plays and highlights, I don't feel much less knowledgeable about sports in general.
I have come to realize that ESPN and other sports analysts really know very little more than I do. It is funny that they spend hours poring over statistics and analyzing matchups, but when it comes down to it, it is simply not possible to predict with much certainty who will do well in a current game or current season.
Take, for example, the NFL Power Rankings that ESPN put out before the beginning of the season, compared to the actual finish (by record, with record of opponents breaking ties) of that team:
(see sports.espn.go.com/nfl/powerranking?season=2006&week=1 for the source of these power rankings)
To me, the most striking errors they made are:
1. They correctly predicted only half of the playoff teams.
2. They were off by 15 or more positions (a separation which represents half of the NFL teams) on 8 teams (25% of the league): Panthers (-17), Steelers (-15), Dolphins (-15), Buccaneers (-17), Chargers (+15), Ravens (+16), Saints (+22), Jets (+25).
3. Only one team finished in the predicted position (Colts).
So there's something for everyone to chew on...
I have come to realize that ESPN and other sports analysts really know very little more than I do. It is funny that they spend hours poring over statistics and analyzing matchups, but when it comes down to it, it is simply not possible to predict with much certainty who will do well in a current game or current season.
Take, for example, the NFL Power Rankings that ESPN put out before the beginning of the season, compared to the actual finish (by record, with record of opponents breaking ties) of that team:
| Team | Rank | Actual Rank | Playoffs | Actual Playoffs |
| Seahawks | 1 | 12 | yes | yes |
| Panthers | 2 | 19 | yes | no |
| Steelers | 3 | 18 | yes | no |
| Colts | 4 | 4 | yes | yes |
| Broncos | 5 | 9 | yes | no |
| Bengals | 6 | 14 | yes | no |
| Patriots | 7 | 5 | yes | yes |
| Cowboys | 8 | 11 | yes | yes |
| Dolphins | 9 | 24 | yes | no |
| Giants | 10 | 16 | yes | yes |
| Jaguars | 11 | 15 | no | no |
| Buccaneers | 12 | T-29 | yes | no |
| Bears | 13 | 3 | yes | yes |
| Redskins | 14 | 27 | no | no |
| Eagles | 15 | 8 | no | yes |
| Chargers | 16 | 1 | no | yes |
| Falcons | 17 | 23 | no | no |
| Ravens | 18 | 2 | no | yes |
| Vikings | 19 | 26 | no | no |
| Chiefs | 20 | 10 | no | yes |
| Cardinals | 21 | 28 | no | no |
| Rams | 22 | 20 | no | no |
| Lions | 23 | 31 | no | no |
| Texans | 24 | 25 | no | no |
| Raiders | 25 | 32 | no | no |
| Titans | 26 | 13 | no | no |
| Browns | 27 | T-29 | no | no |
| Packers | 28 | 17 | no | no |
| Saints | 29 | 7 | no | yes |
| Bills | 30 | 21 | no | no |
| Jets | 31 | 6 | no | yes |
| 49ers | 32 | 22 | no | no |
(see sports.espn.go.com/nfl/powerranking?season=2006&week=1 for the source of these power rankings)
To me, the most striking errors they made are:
1. They correctly predicted only half of the playoff teams.
2. They were off by 15 or more positions (a separation which represents half of the NFL teams) on 8 teams (25% of the league): Panthers (-17), Steelers (-15), Dolphins (-15), Buccaneers (-17), Chargers (+15), Ravens (+16), Saints (+22), Jets (+25).
3. Only one team finished in the predicted position (Colts).
So there's something for everyone to chew on...
for miami doing so horrible this year.